[Really thoughtful critique by Ramez Naam, author of a couple of really fantastic recent sci fi novels (_Nexus_ and _Crux_). I think he misses some stuff — notably that a digital intelligence may have some important abilities that wetware brains lack, like the ability to instantly recall all of human knowledge — but he’s got some solid arguments, and the claim that intelligence design has a non-linear difficulty slope is really thought-provoking. I do think he puts too much emphasis on the mathematical/etymological metaphor; I don’t think most serious thinkers have ever actually thought that the Singularity would be a true mathematical singularity, ie would achieve an infinite slope. -egg]

Are we headed for a Singularity? Is it imminent?

I write relatively near-future science fiction that features neural implants, brain-to-brain communication, and uploaded brains. I also teach at a place called Singularity University. So people naturally assume that I believe in the notion of a Singularity and that one is on the horizon, perhaps in my lifetime.

I think it’s more complex than that, however, and depends in part on one’s definition of the word. The word Singularity has gone through something of a shift in definition over the last few years, weakening its meaning. But regardless of which definition you use, there are good reasons to think that it’s not on the immediate horizon.

via The Singularity Is Further Than It Appears – Charlie’s Diary.