[Spoiler: they didn’t go away because they don’t work. The available evidence suggests that they work almost eerily well. They went away because they were legislated out of existence. I don’t think that can last, long-term. -egg]

WHETHER THE REVIVED INTRADE or Predictious succeeds may depend on how their legal issues resolve. But there is also the unsettling possibility that they will fail because the product they deliver—accurate predictions about the future—is not a product people actually want. For all its promise, Intrade never expanded its user base far beyond the niche world of gamblers and hobbyists, and its employee head count never rose above double digits.

via Death at the Summit: How the Feds Killed a Market Oracle.