Category Archives: Uncategorized

Health insurance claim denial appeal: This AI website can help

Presumably over time this’ll lead to a different equilibrium where either fewer appeals are approved, or the number of required hoops will increase. But seems really useful for now.

…most denials can be successfully appealed. However, most people don’t appeal denied claims, with a study showing that Affordable Care Act patients only appeal about 0.1% of denials. Second, anybody, not just doctors, can file a claim with their insurer. You could do it yourself, just like Karau did.

She actually started helping friends with appeals and then wondered whether she could automate the process. The result is the Fight Health Insurance website. Karau spent a year developing the open-source AI platform before making it available to the general public in the US. The engineer spent about $10,000 to create the service.

Health insurance claim denial appeal: This AI website can help

Tendrils of Mess in our Brains

This is a lovely meditation from Sarah Perry on the meaning of mess. I don’t think that I agree with her conclusion (I agree that ‘high-entropy’ isn’t sufficient, but maybe something like Murray Gell-Mann’s effective complexity would work?) but it was a joy to read.

Watts observes that elements of the natural world – clouds, foam on water, the stars, human beings – are not messes, though the nature of their order remains inscrutable, and Watts doesn’t try to pin down its precise nature. Mess seems to be somehow a property perceptible only in the presence of human artifacts. Is this the result of some kind of aesthetic original sin on the part of humans, uncanny beings severed from the holiness of Nature? I hope not. “Humans are bad” is a boring answer.

We can learn something about order from the mystery of mess. We start here: a cloud is not a mess, but an ashtray full of cigarette butts is a mess. In tracking down why this is so, we will find, through the lens of the mess and the non-mess, a clue to the hidden orders in our minds.

Tendrils of Mess in our Brains

Actively Open-Minded?

This is what I personally try to strive for; it’s good to see that there’s been some academic work on defining and measuring it. Sorry to link to the low-quality Psychology Today; there just isn’t much out there yet for a lay audience on the topic.

date our beliefs takes cognitive effort. We need to override our initial impulses. This is further complicated when a belief is challenged that is central to us (Haidt, 2012). Nevertheless, it can serve as a cognitive aspiration. We will certainly fall short of being actively open-minded, but when we sense we are in Refutation Mode, we can try to momentarily recalibrate and see if being actively open-minded may serve us in the situation.

For example, in making billion-dollar investments, Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge-fund, places the dictate to be “Radically Open-Minded” as one of his key management principles. As he states:

“Radical open-mindedness is the ability to effectively explore different points of view and different possibilities…It requires you to replace your attachment to always being right with the joy of learning what’s true” (2017, p. 187).

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/learning-at-work/201805/do-i-really-have-to-be-actively-open-minded

Make Your Own Bubble in 10 Easy Steps

This is terrific advice, enough so that I’m just pasting much of it below. I have my own slightly different take on it (in particular I think it’s more valuable to put effort into changing the world, in narrow, carefully selected, high-leverage ways), but Caplan’s is mostly pretty close. I don’t always manage to do it, but I’m a lot closer than I used to be.

1. Amicably divorce your society.  Don’t get angry at the strangers who surround you, just accept the fact that you’re not right for each other.

2. Stop paying attention to things that aggravate you unless (a) they concretely affect your life AND (b) you can realistically do something about them.  Start by ceasing to follow national and world news.

3. Pay less frequent attention to things that aggravate you even if they do concretely affect your life and you can realistically do something about them.  For example, if you check your email twenty times a day and find the experience frustrating, try cutting back to two or three times a day.  If you need to know about world politics, read history books, not newspaper articles.

5. Abandon your First World Problems mentality.  Consciously compare your income to Haitian poverty, your health status to Locked-In Syndrome, your sorrow to that of parent who has lost a child.  As Tsunami Bomb tells us, “Be grateful that you have a brain for thinking/
And legs to take you places.”  For guidance, repeatedly read Epicurus’ Letter to Menoeceus and Julian Simon’s Good Mood.

8. Find a career you really enjoy.  Ask yourself, “Will I take daily pride in this work?” and “Are the kind of people I want to befriend statistically over-represented in this line of work?”  If you have to signal for years to get this job, sigh, signal, and see Step 5.

10. Now that your own life is in order, you are emotionally ready to quixotically visit your ex-society.  Maybe you want to publicly argue for open bordersabolition of the minimum wage, or pacifism.  Go for it.  Bend over backwards to be friendly.  Take pride in your quixotic quest.  Then go home to your Beautiful Bubble and relax.

https://www.econlib.org/archives/2013/04/make_your_own_b.html

America Has Too Many Laws

I’m not sure I’ve ever talked to anyone who would disagree, but all the structural incentives push in the direction of continuing expansion. No one gets re-elected for getting rid of bad laws.

Not only have our laws grown rapidly in recent years; so have the punishments they carry. You might think that federal criminal laws are reserved for the worst of the worst—individuals who have committed acts so egregious that they merit the attention not just of state authorities but of federal authorities, and not just civil fines but potential prison time. But if that’s your intuition, ask yourself this question: How many federal crimes do you think we have these days?

It turns out no one knows. Yes, every few years some enterprising academic or government official sets out to count them. They devote considerable resources and time (often years) to the task. But in the end, they come up short.

In 1982, the Department of Justice undertook what stands as maybe the most comprehensive count to date. A lawyer spent more than two years reading the U.S. Code—at that time, some 23,000 pages. The best the lawyer could say was that there were about 3,000 federal crimes.

Today, the U.S. Code is roughly twice the length it was in 1982, and contemporary guesses put the number of federal crimes north of 5,000. As the American Bar Association has said, “Whatever the exact number of crimes that comprise today’s ‘federal criminal law,’ it is clear that the amount of individual citizen behavior now potentially subject to federal criminal control has increased in astonishing proportions in the last few decades.”

Part of the reason no one can easily count the number of federal crimes is that our federal criminal code was “not planned; it just grew,” as Ronald Gainer, a retired Justice Department official, puts it. We do not have any single place to which people can turn to discern what our criminal laws prohibit. Sure, there’s Title 18 of the U.S. Code, “Crimes and Criminal Procedure.” But in truth, criminal laws are scattered here and there throughout various federal statutory titles and sections, the product of different pieces of legislation and different Congresses. Really, our federal criminal law is, Gainer writes, “a loose assemblage of … components that were built hastily to respond to perceptions of need and to perceptions of the popular will.”

That’s not the only confounding factor, though. Many federal criminal statutes overlap entirely, are duplicative in part, or, when juxtaposed, raise perplexing questions about what they mean. Take fraud. We have a federal mail-fraud law. We have a federal wire-fraud law. We have federal bribery and illegal-gratuities laws. We also have a federal law forbidding the deprivation of “honest services,” though no one is exactly sure what it does (or does not) add to all those other laws about fraud. On top of all this, more new laws criminalizing fraud are proposed during just about every session of Congress.

Once more, Congress’s output represents just the tip of the iceberg. Our administrative agencies don’t just turn out rules with civil penalties attached to them; every year, they generate more and more rules carrying criminal sanctions as well. How many? Here again, no one seems sure. But estimates suggest that at least 300,000 federal-agency regulations carry criminal sanctions today.

If you were to sit down and read through all of our criminal laws and regulations—or at least flip through them—you would find plenty of surprises. You would learn, for example, that it’s a federal crime to damage a government-owned lamp in Washington, D.C.; consult with a known pirate; or advertise wine by suggesting its intoxicating qualities.

The truth is, we now have so many federal criminal laws covering so many things that the legal scholar John Baker suggests that “there is no one in the United States over the age of 18 who cannot be indicted for some federal crime.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/08/america-has-too-many-laws-neil-gorsuch/679237/

Toward a Broader Conception of Adverse Selection

Adverse Selection is the phenomenon in which information asymmetries in non-cooperative environments make trading dangerous. It has traditionally been understood to describe financial markets in which buyers and sellers systematically differ, such as a market for used cars in which sellers have the information advantage, where resulting feedback loops can lead to market collapses.

In this post, I make the case that adverse selection effects appear in many everyday contexts beyond specialized markets or strictly financial exchanges. I argue that modeling many of our decisions as taking place in competitive environments analogous to financial markets will help us notice instances of adverse selection that we otherwise wouldn’t.

Toward a Broader Conception of Adverse Selection

A cogent critique of David Graeber’s “Bullshit Jobs”

It’s been a long time since I read the original “Bullshit Jobs” essay or the book it was extended into; I’m tempted to go back with this critique in mind and see what I think.

[Graeber] presents an economic theory for how this happens, connecting it to the medieval practice of creating face-saving make-work jobs for talentless aristocrats, like a master of the horse or a lady of the bedchamber. In Graeber’s telling, a monarch who mostly gets paid taxes in kind has a calorie surplus, and needs to spend it by feeding assorted lackeys and hangers-on. And the modern rich are much richer than medieval rulers, while human vanity is a constant. So of course they hire a lot more such lackeys, right?

No! Of course not, because economic growth makes stuff cheap and time precious. And unstable political institutions also make safety precious. If there’s a cheap way to keep lots of allies handy, in case they’re necessary, and to keep enemies close, in case they want to try something, why not? That doesn’t apply today; Shantanu Narayen doesn’t have to worry that the illegitimate son of an Adobe cofounder is going to sail to San Jose, mercenaries in tow, and depose him.

“Bullshit Jobs” is a Terrible, Curiosity-Killing Concept